Multiple introductions of invasive alien species on a Mediterranean Island predicted by horizon scanning

Abstract In 2017 and 2019 two horizon scan workshops were undertaken for the island of Cyprus, which focused on making predictions about the invasive alien species (IAS) most likely to arrive and impact biodiversity, human health and the economy. Herein, we assess the species lists derived from these two horizon scans and consider the accuracy of the predictions so far. In less than ten years, 26 new IAS were found in Cyprus, 10 out of which were predicted to arrive by the horizon scans. Eight introduced IAS were ranked as high risk during the horizon scanning process. Horizon scanning helped raise awareness amongst the authorities, scientists and the public, leading in some cases to a rapid response by the competent authorities to control the arrival. We conclude that horizon scanning is a useful process that can inform contingency planning and action. Furthermore, it facilitates communication between IAS experts, policy makers and society, encouraging active engagement and raising awareness regarding the importance of early warning, rapid response and management of IAS. We propose that the horizon scanning process for the island of Cyprus is repeated regularly, recognizing the ongoing increase in the number of new IAS arriving year on year.