Modelling and Measuring Resilience: Some Methodological Considerations in the Case of Estonia

Abstract This chapter delves into the complexities of defining and measuring resilience, highlighting the dual nature of resilience as both plasticity and elasticity. The chapter discusses the roles of state and individual actions in fostering resilience, focusing on critical infrastructure and proactive measures by individuals. It introduces counter-vector resilience, where different societal groups exhibit mutually antagonistic resilience efforts, particularly relevant in the context of Russian influence on Estonian society. The resilience debate in this chapter will take place in conditions of liberal democratic values. Drawing on lessons from Ukraine’s resilience during the 2022–2024 conflict, the chapter underscores the importance of both returning to an original state and adapting to new circumstances. Recommendations include clarifying terminology, differentiating between minimum and maximum levels of resilience, combining quantitative and qualitative methods for measurement, and, above all, conducting extensive mapping of actual views of peoples by their constituency, including a more detailed heat map of countryside in collaboration with the enhanced Forward Presence forces.