Assessing the Mainstreaming of Land Subsidence Risk in Spatial and Development Planning: Evidence from Coastal Semarang, Indonesia

Spatial planning in coastal areas involves balancing economic development with the management of long-term environmental risks. Semarang City’s coastal zone faces severe land subsidence, with rate reaching approximately 10–13 cm per year, exacerbating the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change. This study examines the extent to which land subsidence issue has been incorporated into spatial and development planning policies in Semarang City. Using a qualitative approach based on content analysis of spatial and development planning documents across multiple governance levels, the findings reveal that despite long-standing scientific evidence, land subsidence is not formally designated as a disaster-prone area within spatial planning documents. Effective spatial planning is expected to respond to the disaster risks through adaptive and mitigative policies and programs that reflect environmental carrying capacity and regional support capacity. However, the limited mainstreaming of land subsidence risk has resulted in spatial planning and development practices that insufficiently integrate these environmental considerations. The study highlights a critical gap between scientific knowledge and planning implementation and underscores the need for stronger institutional integration of land subsidence risk to support sustainable coastal urban development.