Bayesian chronological modelling for early pottery in the far western Pacific: Evidence from the Raja Ampat Islands of West New Guinea

The initial dispersal routes and subsequent exchange networks of Austronesian speaking populations in Island Southeast Asia (ISEA) and Near Oceania continue to be debated. Accurate and precise chronologies on pottery assemblages are key in clarifying these population movements and dynamics. Previous scholars have suggested red-slipped pottery may be a proxy for Malayo-Polynesian speakers’ presence, and Lapita pottery may be a proxy for Proto-Oceanic speakers. Under this premise, pottery assemblages found between eastern Indonesia and the Bismarck Archipelago have the potential to inform us about the arrivals and movements of new Austronesian languages to the region and their possible connections with Lapita peoples that voyaged into the Pacific. The generally poor resolution of the archaeological and radiocarbon record from this part of the Pacific calls for more research to settle the debate. Mololo Cave is a site in the Raja Ampat Islands off the western coast of New Guinea, containing the earliest reported pottery assemblages in the area, including red-slipped and plainware Lapitoid pottery. This paper presents 11 new radiocarbon dates and Mololo’s first two Bayesian age models to increase the robusticity of the date estimates at the site and enable chronological comparisons with similar pottery assemblages from the region. Most of the pottery sherds, including both red-slipped and Lapitoid pottery, emerge after 3090–2258 cal BP, potentially being as early as 3903–3420 cal BP. This chronological model provides critical information about the dispersal of pottery-making groups around the far western Pacific during the initial expansion of Austronesian languages into the region.