Evaluating the Contribution of Active Galactic Nuclei to the Diffuse High-Energy Neutrino Flux

The detection of high-energy neutrinos from NGC 1068 and TXS-0506+56 suggests that active galactic nuclei (AGN) may contribute significantly to the the diffuse neutrino flux measured by IceCube. Using 10 years of publicly available IceCube data, we performed a systematic population analysis of X-ray-bright and gamma-ray-bright AGN to evaluate the extent to which this diffuse flux could originate from these sources. We find that gamma-ray-bright blazars can account for no more than 16\% of IceCube's total diffuse flux. Although we find no evidence of neutrino emission from gamma-ray-bright, non-blazar AGN, we cannot exclude the possibility that these sources contribute significantly to the diffuse flux. In contrast, we report (pre-trials) evidence of neutrino emission from several nearby, X-ray-bright, Seyfert-type AGN, including \mbox{NGC 1068} ($4.9σ$), SWIFT J1041.4-1740 ($2.6σ$), SWIFT J0202.4+6824A/B ($2.6σ$), SWIFT J0744.0+2914 (2.6$σ$), NGC 4151 ($2.5σ$), and NGC 3079 ($2.5σ$). Although not fully conclusive, these results suggest that IceCube may be detecting neutrinos from a larger population of Seyfert galaxies. The fact that these sources are not gamma-ray bright indicates that their neutrino production must be taking place in optically thick environments, such as in the coronae surrounding these galaxies' supermassive black holes. We also identify a $4.2σ$ correlation between the neutrinos detected by IceCube and members of the Swift-BAT catalog of X-ray-bright AGN, although this correlation is dominated by NGC 1068. We estimate that this class of sources contributes between 11.2\% and the entirety of IceCube's total diffuse neutrino flux. These results strengthen the emerging case for the prevalence of gamma-ray-obscured AGN as significant sources of high-energy neutrinos.