A Hybrid SHACL–Bayesian Framework for Managing Clinical Uncertainty in Postmenopausal Women with Recurrent Urinary Tract Infections

This study introduces a hybrid methodological approach for personalised clinical decision support, integrating SHACL-based deterministic constraints with Bayesian probabilistic models. The primary goal is to validate the model and demonstrate the benefits of combining encoded clinical knowledge with probabilistic uncertainties in managing complex therapeutic scenarios. The framework was applied to recurrent urinary tract infections (UTIs) in postmenopausal patients, a clinical context marked by high frequency, treatment challenges, and potential conflicts among therapeutic guidelines. Realistic simulated case studies were developed, encompassing both simple clinical profiles and complex situations, such as patients with antibiotic resistance. Each profile was modelled in RDF/Turtle, enabling semantic representation of clinical features and therapeutic rules. The system automatically calculates success and failure probabilities for different therapeutic scenarios, dynamically adapting them based on follow-up data. This allows clinicians to assess not only the initial therapy choice (Case study no. 1) but also the potential addition of supplementary interventions during treatment (Case study no. 2). Results highlight that the proposed hybrid SHACL–Bayesian framework enables tightly coupled deterministic–probabilistic reasoning, where SHACL constraints define the admissible clinical decisions and Bayesian inference operates within this validated space. Compared to deterministic or probabilistic approaches, the combined framework more effectively handles uncertainty, guideline conflicts, and temporal updates. The scientific contribution lies in showing that this integration enhances decision support for recurrent UTIs in postmenopausal patients, providing clinically consistent, transparent, and adaptive therapeutic recommendations aligned with the patient’s evolving condition.