Beyond vulnerability assessment: Integrating risk and capacity measurement in Tunisian communes adaptation—Evidence from nine communes

Climate adaptation planning in resource-constrained contexts requires systematic assessment tools integrating vulnerability with capacity measurement, yet existing frameworks focus either on community vulnerability without institutional dimensions or institutional maturity without quantitative risk weighting. This gap leaves communes unable to demonstrate climate finance readiness or prioritize investments. We address this through a three-index model integrating Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment with institutional capacity measurement. Documentary analysis, structured questionnaires assessing five capacity dimensions (local capabilities, governance, partnerships, gender integration, technical tools), and participatory workshops generate three metrics: a Risk Index (RI) quantifying threats, an Adaptation Capacity Index (ACI) measuring resources, and a Climate Maturity Index (CMI) expressing capacity relative to system state. Applied to nine Tunisian communes, assessment reveals systematic patterns. Risk scores range from 2.33 to 3.00, with maturity (CMI) spanning 16.7% to 50.7%. Socioeconomic sensitivity rather than physical hazards serves as the primary differentiator, with agricultural dependency above 60% associated with maximum sensitivity. Socioeconomic sensitivity and adaptive capacity exhibit inverse correlation ( ρ = − 0 . 69 , p = 0 . 04 ), with 89% showing adaptation deficits averaging +1.54 points. Universal weakness in gender integration (mean=0.78) and technical tools (mean=0.67) persists across readiness categories, explained by 44% concordance between community priorities emphasizing infrastructure and technical assessments identifying governance, gender, and tools as critical capacity determinants. These findings challenge climate finance allocation equity, revealing eligibility criteria may favor communes already possessing capacity. The model offers a quantitative readiness tool for vulnerability-weighted resource allocation, with patterns identified across these nine diverse communes generating hypotheses for validation in broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) contexts. • Novel three-index model integrates climate risk with municipal capacity assessment. • Inverse sensitivity-capacity correlation ( ρ =−0.69, p=0.04) challenges climate finance equity. • Community priorities misalign with technical gaps (44% concordance) in all communes. • Non-compensatory ratio formula prevents capacity from masking overwhelming risk. • Socioeconomic sensitivity dominates over physical hazard exposure as differentiator.