Transport Sector Energy Demand Analysis Using MAED: The Case of Urban centers in Kenya.

This study applies the MAED framework to analyse urban passenger transport energy demand in Kenya, using KNBS data (2019, 2020, and 2025). The analysis focuses on population-driven passenger activity, examining the influence of modal split, load factors, and energy intensity on energy consumption. The study evaluates two key objectives: reducing transport sector energy demand and supporting mass transit development to address urban congestion. A scenario-based approach compares a Business-as-Usual pathway with public transport-oriented scenarios that prioritise higher capacity utilisation and reduced reliance on low-occupancy modes. Results show that although urban passenger transport activity is projected to increase significantly, energy demand outcomes depend strongly on modal structure. Scenarios emphasising high-capacity public transport and improved load factors achieve substantial reductions in energy demand per passenger-kilometre, while also reducing congestion. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of integrated transport and energy planning in supporting sustainable urban mobility. Strengthening public transport systems can decouple mobility growth from energy demand, contributing to lower congestion, improved efficiency, and inclusive socio-economic development in Kenyan urban centres.