Building localized and generic scenarios for sea and river dikes based on their socio-ecological footprint

In light of climate change and a new regulatory context, the DIGUES research program is exploring the potential futures of French dikes up to 2050. An interdisciplinary, forward-looking approach has been applied to consider the socio-ecological footprint of the ways in which dikes evolve. It brings together social and environmental sciences with stakeholder participation to build localized and generic scenarios. This approach offers an alternative to technical approaches based solely on sea or river defense, as it puts forward a method that links the physical dynamics of the environment to social and organizational issues and variables. The pathways presented (dikes maintained in their current state, reinforced, lowered, or moved back) therefore position the future of dikes in terms of continuity or transformative strategies in a context where territories take on greater responsibility in the face of climate change. In diking strategies, local public action is still driven by territorial goals and should consider more environmental dynamics. Developing territorial projects that include social and ecological elements helps to promote transformative strategies. • Dikes’ evolution scenarios are proposed for territories facing climate change. • Mixed methods lead to local and generic scenarios. • Continuity (maintaining/strengthening dikes) or transformative strategies (opening/moving back) appeared. • In diking strategies local public action is driven by territorial goals and should consider more environmental dynamics. • Developing socio-environmental territorial projects promotes transformative strategies.