A Multi-Criteria Decision-Support Framework for Evaluating Alternative Fuels and Technologies Toward Zero Emission Shipping

This paper presents an MAUT-based decision-support framework, developed within the NAVGREEN project, to enable the evaluation of alternative fuels and technologies in shipping decarbonization pathways toward zero-emission targets. The framework integrates stakeholder-derived weights elicited through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and systematically evaluates alternatives across five criteria: cost, technological maturity, safety and regulatory compatibility, carbon footprint, and social acceptability. Alternatives are mapped into a common utility space through criterion-specific utility functions and aggregated into a composite utility score, enabling transparent and reproducible comparison of single and combined solutions. To strengthen applicability beyond a single illustrative application, the study incorporates a structured scenario and sensitivity analyses (policy stringency, infrastructure constraints, conservative regulatory environments, and weight and parameter perturbations) to assess ranking stability under plausible future conditions. A case study on an Ultramax bulk carrier is used solely to demonstrate the operability and workflow of the method, rather than to empirically validate technology choices across all ship types. Optional AI-assisted elicitation may be used as a supporting aid to harmonize indicative inputs when data are incomplete; however, validation of AI-generated estimates is outside the scope of the present study and is identified as future work.