Constraining the Impact Threat from Small Bodies in Near Earth and Cislunar Space

Understanding and mitigating the impact threat posed by small bodies in near-Earth and cislunar space is vital for planetary defense, spacecraft safety, and sustainable space operations. This research integrates dynamical evolution modeling, synthetic observations, and reprocessed infrared data to assess the origins and potential hazards of debris from young asteroid families. By modeling the trajectories and orbital evolution of fragments from the Datura, Emilkowalski, 1992 YC2, Lucascavin (Nesvorný & Vokrouhlický, 2006), and Veritas (Nesvorný et al., 2003) families, we constrain how these sources contribute to near-Earth debris populations. Reprocessing Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) data with Fourier-filtering techniques reveals fine-structure variations in the Veritas dust bands near ±10° ecliptic latitude, suggesting a secondary disruption a few hundred thousand years ago. Building on this, we simulate particle observations using randomized orbital parameters to produce realistic representations of debris evolution. Real asteroid family orbital elements serve as constraints for these simulations, allowing direct comparison to actual observations. This approach enables identification of potential particle trajectories that may intersect with satellites in Earth or cislunar orbit, enhancing predictive models of impact risk. The findings support planetary defense initiatives, mission planning, and long-term sustainability of human and robotic activity beyond Earth.