Hygienic analysis and digital forecasting as the tools for managing sanitary-epidemiological wellbeing to achieve target indicators of life expectancy in the population of the Russian Federation

Introduction. The relevance of this study is determined by the need for a scientific basis to support decision-making aimed at achieving the Russian Federation’s national goal of increasing life expectancy (LE) to 78 years by 2030 through the management of sanitary and epidemiological well-being.The aim of this study is to conduct a comprehensive hygienic analysis to substantiate tools for supporting managerial decisions in the field of sanitary and epidemiological well-being.Materials and methods. Data obtained from 85 regions of the Russian Federation for the period 2010–2023 were analyzed. Methods employed included regression analysis, econometric analysis, neural network modeling, cascade modeling, and GIS technologies.Results. A strong association was identified between urbanization rates and life expectancy (LE) (R² = 0.71; r = 0.84). Significant regional differentiation in LE was established, reaching up to 12.8 years. The primary risk factors were identified as ambient air pollution, drinking water contamination, food pollution, and soil contamination. In 2024, the control, surveillance, and preventive activities of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) prevented an estimated 33.9 thousand deaths and 4.56 million cases of the disease. The economic efficiency of these activities was calculateeighty five at 18.5 RUB per 1 RUB invested. A forecasted deficit in LE growth by 2030 was estimated at 3.06 years. However, the potential growth in LE due to the projected trend in influencing factors by 2030 is 2.1 years. The maximum potential growth from the complete elimination of associated cases attributable to sanitary-epidemiological factors is 3.8 years. The achievable target levels of LE by 2030 across regions were demonstrated, with a projected range from 92.3% to 100.9% of the goal. A prototype for a “digital twin” model of a Russian region was proposed as a tool to support managerial decision-making.Limitations. This study relied on official statistical data; consequently, inaccuracies in the precision of regional estimates and forecasts are possible. The predictive models are based on retrospective data, and their results are susceptible to the influence of changing external conditions.Conclusion. Managerial decisions in the field of sanitary and epidemiological well-being play a crucial role in achieving LE targets in Russia. This underscores the necessity of developing and implementing targeted, evidence-based strategies that account for the specificities of specific Russian regions.Compliance with ethical standards. The study did not require the conclusion of a biomedical ethics committee or other documents (the study was performed using publicly available official statistics).Contribution: Zaitseva N.V., Alekseev V.B., Kleyn S.V. – concept and design of the study, editing, approval of the final version of the article; May I.V., Kiryanov D.A. – writing text, editing, approval of the final version of the article; Glukhikh M.V. – collection and processing of material, statistical data processing, and writing text. All authors are of the manuscript and approval of the manuscript final version.Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.Funding. The study had no sponsorship.Received: November 20, 2025 / Accepted: December 2, 2025 / Published: February 10, 2026