Development and Validation of a Scale to Measure Student Dispositions Toward Scientific Uncertainty Navigation

ABSTRACT Navigating scientific uncertainty is essential for fostering curiosity and enhancing students' science learning. Dispositions toward Scientific Uncertainty Navigation (DSUN)—students' tendencies to think, feel, believe, and act when encountering scientific uncertainties—play a key role in this process. Despite its importance, DSUN remains underexplored in terms of conceptualization, measurement, and its relationship to curiosity and learning achievement. To address these gaps, we propose a four‐construct DSUN framework: Epistemic Orientation, Affective Responses, Self‐Efficacy, and Strategies. Using Kane's (2006) argument‐based approach, we developed and validated a DSUN measure, evaluating its structure, generalizability, relationship to curiosity and achievement, and responsiveness to change in uncertainty‐driven science learning—an instructional approach that positions student uncertainty as a catalyst for scientific engagement and learning. Pre‐ and post‐instruction survey data ( n = 857) were collected from middle school science classrooms taught by 12 teachers across 10 schools. Factor analysis revealed that Affective Responses split into positive and negative dimensions, yielding five DSUN subconstructs. Mediation analysis demonstrated that pre‐DSUN predicted both curiosity and achievement, with curiosity serving as a mediator. Path analysis showed that curiosity mediated the effects of three pre‐DSUN subconstructs—Positive Affective Responses, Self‐Efficacy, and Strategies—on achievement. Importantly, the direct effect of pre‐ and post‐Positive Affective Responses on achievement, controlling for curiosity, was negative. After instruction, the relationship between post‐Epistemic Orientation and curiosity strengthened, as did curiosity's mediating role in predicting learning achievement. These findings underscore curiosity's pivotal function in translating DSUN into achievement. Methodologically, the study affirms the utility of Kane's framework for validating novel constructs in science education. Theoretically, it advances understanding of DSUN as a multidimensional construct intricately linked to curiosity and learning. Pedagogically, it offers actionable insights for supporting students' navigation of scientific uncertainty in ways that foster both curiosity and learning achievement.