Energy, Exchange, and Migration: An Econometric Assessment of Factors Shaping Canada’s GDP

Over the past decade, Canada’s economic performance has been characterized by slowing growth and increasing policy debate regarding immigration and resource dependence. This study empirically examines the macroeconomic determinants of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the period 2000–2023 using multiple linear regression analysis. Two models are estimated: a long-run model covering 2000–2023 and a short-run model covering 2012–2023 that incorporates global oil prices. Explanatory variables include the unemployment rate, net migration, the CAD–USD exchange rate, and Brent crude oil prices. The short-run model exhibits strong explanatory power (Adjusted R² = 0.84), with exchange rate depreciation (p ≈ 0.001) and oil price increases (p < 0.001) exerting statistically significant positive effects on GDP. In contrast, the long-run model shows that net migration is a significant and positive driver of GDP (p < 0.001), while exchange rate depreciation is negatively associated with output over longer horizons (Adjusted R² = 0.68). The unemployment rate is statistically insignificant in both specifications. These findings suggest that Canada’s GDP dynamics are shaped by a combination of shortrun external trade and commodity price shocks and long-run demographic expansion. Policy implications emphasize the importance of balancing immigration-led growth with productivity-enhancing reforms while reducing vulnerability to volatile commodity cycles.