Directing Future Conservation Programmes for Dugong Habitats in Light of Climate Change Along the Egyptian Red Sea Coast

ABSTRACT Climate change and anthropogenic activities represent a significant threat to the distribution of dugongs ( Dugong dugon ) and potentially result in shifts in range and population declines unless prompt and effective conservation strategies are implemented. Species distribution models (SDMs) are employed to evaluate the impacts of these threats on dugong habitat distribution in Egypt, aiming to map habitat suitability under both current and future scenarios, following the ‘middle path’ (SSP2‐4.5) projections for the years 2050 and 2070. This study focused on identifying key refuges and evaluating the effectiveness of existing marine protected areas (MPAs) for dugong conservation. The analysis forecasts that climate change will result in a future decrease in suitable habitats, with an estimated loss of approximately 11.8% of the current dugong distribution by 2050, increasing to 20% by 2070 under the same scenario. The MPAs currently encompass merely 54.8% of the potential species' habitat. Projections suggest this figure may decrease to approximately 52.9% by 2050 and 52% by 2070. These MPAs are projected to encompass approximately 31% of the habitats anticipated to be lost by 2050, with this figure expected to increase to 87% by 2070. This anticipated spatial change in dugong distribution due to climate change underscores the critical role of these MPAs in alleviating these effects. It should guide the formulation of conservation and adaptation management strategies. Such strategies must include a stringent prohibition on activities that could deteriorate these habitats soon. Consequently, it is essential to establish comprehensive management, monitoring and assessment protocols for suitable habitats beyond protected areas, engaging all relevant stakeholders in conservation initiatives. These initiatives will aid in developing effective adaptive conservation strategies to determine dugong protected areas (DPAs) in the Egyptian Red Sea.