Climate-Driven Aflatoxin M1 Risks in Serbia: Implications for Integrated Food Safety Management Along the Dairy Chain

Aflatoxin M1 (AFM₁) is a carcinogenic milk contaminant and a persistent food safety concern in Serbia, especially under changing climate conditions that exacerbate contamination risks. This review synthesizes national research conducted between 2012 and 2024, covering more than thirty thousand analyzed milk and dairy samples, to evaluate AFM1 contamination, public health risks, and the need for structured risk ranking and prioritization frameworks recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). A systematic analysis of Serbian studies explored AFM₁ occurrence, dietary exposure, and health risk estimates across population groups. The evidence reveals persistent AFM1 contamination with pronounced seasonal peaks during drought years and winter months, frequently exceeding the EU maximum limit of 0.05 µg/kg. Recent multi-year studies confirm that climate-driven AFB1 contamination in maize and compound feed remains a significant and recurring source of AFM1 in milk, highlighting the necessity of structured risk prioritization frameworks. Exposure assessments highlight children and students as the most vulnerable groups, displaying the highest estimated daily intake. Although current margin of exposure (MOE) values remain within acceptable limits, the persistence of contamination underscores a need for proactive risk management. Adoption of FAO and EFSA risk-ranking methodologies would enhance monitoring efficiency, protect high-risk populations, and support alignment with EU standards. Implementing structured risk prioritization is crucial for strengthening Serbia's food safety governance, guiding policy decisions, and reducing the health burden of AFM₁ in the dairy sector.