The effect of land costs on the economic and sustainability performance of solar photovoltaics in China

Scaling up solar photovoltaics (PV) is essential for global decarbonization, particularly in China-the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. Despite leading in PV installations, China has yet to widely adopt the more efficient tracking technologies for capturing solar radiation (12% adoption rate), in stark contrast to the United States (90%). To examine the rationale behind this divergence and its consequences, we develop a spatially explicit, integrated model to evaluate and compare tracking and fixed-tilt systems in China-comparing power generation, land use, cost, sustainability, and policy resilience. We find that although single-axis tracking provides electricity gains and appears technically more cost-effective, rising land prices in China could offset its benefits. Land costs increase the levelized cost of electricity by 20% for tracking systems, compared to 8% for fixed-tilt, making the latter cheaper in real-world conditions. Consequently, land-efficient fixed-tilt systems are favored, despite requiring 18 to 26% more panels for the same output-intensifying material demands. Under a 6 PWh target in 2060, current land policies would drive 59% of electricity toward fixed-tilt. Reducing soft land costs could increase the adoption of tracking systems to 63% and reduce installed capacity by up to 8% (219 GW) under the same electricity output, compared with an increasing costs scenario, but would expand land use by 35% or 12.9 thousand km². Our findings underscore how land economics and policy shape renewable technology deployment. They highlight critical trade-offs between energy yield, land use, and material demand, offering insights for designing more balanced and resilient decarbonization strategies.