Policy ambition vs. capability: reviewing UK’s readiness for safe deployment of connected and automated vehicles

• Policy capacity framework is used to assess UK CAV governance ecosystem’s capability to deliver the government’s policy ambition of the safe deployment of CAVs. • Review of responses to the consultations conducted by the Law Commission of England & Wales and the Scottish Law Commission, stakeholder responses, the Transport Committee responses, and analyses of documents, explanatory notes and scoping reviews at different stages towards the ascension the Act. • The concept of a “careful and competent” driver remains undefined and lacks measurable criteria and there is no consensus on how risk should be quantified or what level of risk is acceptable? • To bridge the gap there is a need for a method to quantify risk aligned with that of a “careful and competent” driver. • The Statement of Safety Principles will be a key test of UK’s ability to align ambition with capability and public trust. The UK government’s ambition for the safe deployment of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) is now formalised in the Automated Vehicles Act 2024 (the Act), through the Statement of Safety Principles, which requires that authorised CAVs achieve a level of safety equivalent to, or higher than, that of a “careful and competent” human driver. This paper examines whether the UK’s regulatory, institutional, and technical capabilities are aligned with the ambition for safe CAV deployment and how they compare internationally, by using a policy-capacity framework. A narrative review was conducted using consultation responses to the Law Commissions’ recommendations, stakeholder responses, Transport Committee reports, and associated legislative documents. Findings indicate that the concept of a “careful and competent” driver remains undefined and lacks measurable criteria. While the UK endorses a positive risk balance, there is no consensus on how risk should be quantified or what level of risk is acceptable. For example, should the trade-off between fewer high-risk events and a greater number of low-risk events be acceptable. Although various stakeholders are working toward solutions, there is no harmonised framework to assess whether CAVs meet this safety benchmark or a method to measure real-time risk. Addressing these challenges and closing the gap between ambition and capability requires a solution to determine the risk present in the system. The forthcoming Statement of Safety Principles will be a litmus test of whether the UK can translate ambition into a risk governance model that the public trusts.