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Introduction Agriculture in New Zealand (NZ) is facing major disruptions due to the impacts from change drivers, such as climate, environmental regulations, and emerging technologies. Strategies to respond to the risks and opportunities associated with these disruptors are needed to transform and strengthen agriculture to achieve economic and environmental objectives. Focusing on the arable sector is of particular importance as it plays a crucial role to ensure carbon neutrality, profitability, and food security. In this paper, we aim to explore potential pathways and interventions to achieve sustainable and resilient arable agriculture by 2050. Methods Working closely with stakeholders from the arable sector, critical scenarios related to food security, climate change mitigation and alternative protein production were co-designed. A decision support tool (DST) that integrates economic, environmental, and production data at the national scale was used to simulate the scenarios. Results Results suggest great opportunities for the sector to change and grow. Enhancing food security by producing 700 k tonnes of wheat (i.e., an extra 25 k hectares) and introducing this wheat in a Dairy livestock system could reduce carbon equivalent biogenic emissions by a factor of eight while using one-third less water for irrigation than is normally used for dairying. Complementing animal diets with 30% locally grown grains and reducing the herd by 10% achieves NZ emissions targets for 2050. Developing a pea and fava bean protein extraction market, with the implementation of a new extraction facility (processing 15 k tonne of peas/year), increase in productivity, area planted, and value (yields up from 3.5 to 5 t/ha; value rise from $960/t to $1,200/t; and land area increase to 25,000 ha) would result in a significant growth in arable agriculture profitability ($375 million) and emissions reductions. Discussion Beyond these quantitative insights, the study demonstrates the value of participatory modelling as a policy-support mechanism: by aligning scientific outputs with stakeholder knowledge, the DST strengthens evidence-based dialogue on land-use planning, regional diversification, and the transition toward carbon-neutral agriculture.