Good students, mimics and laggards: Policy lessons for closing electricity access gaps in Africa

This paper examines why extensive adoption of off-grid and mini-grid “best practice” policies has not translated into improved electricity access outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. Building on the Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE), we combine a cross-sectional analysis of rural electrification rates with a nested analysis of four contrasting country cases—Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, and South Sudan. We find that higher RISE off-grid and mini-grid scores are not associated with better rural electrification outcomes, and that countries with near-complete policy adoption can exhibit low access rates. The case studies show that local capabilities, a small number of cross-cutting policies, financing availability, and appropriate policy sequencing matter more than policy quantity. These findings highlight the limits of best-practice benchmarking in low-capacity contexts and suggest that RISE is most useful as a diagnostic policy database rather than a performance metric. The results have implications for policymakers and development partners seeking to accelerate progress toward SDG7. • RISE off-grid and mini-grid scores are weakly associated with rural electrification outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. • Countries with extensive adoption of best-practice policies can still exhibit low electricity access. • Case studies show that local capabilities, financing availability, and policy sequencing matter more than policy quantity. • RISE and indexes alike are best used as a diagnostic tool rather than a performance benchmark.