Modelling the distribution of the epigeic species of earthworms Dendrobaena attemsi (Oligochaeta: Lumbricidae) in the North-Western Caucasus

Current distribution of the epigeic earthworm species D. attemsi in the forests of the Northwest Caucasus was assessed and a forecast of changes in the potential range of the species under different climatic models and scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions up to 2080–2100 was given. To predict the potential range of D. attemsi, open data was taken from 2 global climate models (GCMs) (BCC-CSM2-MR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR) of CMIP6 forecasts, which are reliable predictors of temperature and precipitation variables under 4 socio-economic scenarios (SSPs): 126, 245, 370, and 585. Geospatial modelling was performed using the Maxent v. 3.4.1. software. Modelling was performed on the basis of the species’ points of finds (237 points) obtained during the spring and summer expeditions within the Northwest Caucasus (Krasnodar Krai, the Republic of Adygea, and the Karachay-Cherkess Republic) from 2014 to 2023. It was established that precipitation-related predictors, such as bio12 – Annual Precipitation; bio16 –Precipitation of Wettest Quarter, and bio15 – Precipitation Seasonality, make the greatest contribution to climate modelling. Among the temperature predictors, only one makes the most significant contribution to the construction of some models: bio9 (Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter). Modelling by 4 socio-economic scenarios shows a reduction in the total area of the D. attemsi range in the Northwest Caucasus by 2100 from 10% under the ‘mildest’ scenario (SSPs126) to 32% under the most ‘severe’ scenario (SSPs585).