Assessing Tomato Area, Production, and Yield Dynamics in Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries

This study explores tomato production trends in low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) (Africa - 85.3%; Americas – 100%; Asia – 62.5%) from 2000 to 2022, focusing on the relationships between harvested area, yield, and key influencing factors. The objectives were to evaluate the dynamics affecting tomato area, production and yield while exploring ways for optimisation in LIFDCs. Despite the importance of tomatoes for food security, production in these countries faces challenges such as poor soil fertility, diseases, pests, and climate change. The analysis included data from 37 countries, sourced from FAOSTAT and supplemented by a systematic literature review following PRISMA guidelines and Boolean operators. Principal component analysis (PCA) was employed in analysing the data. PCA is useful in simplifying complex data and reducing dimensionality while keeping most of the meaningful variation. This makes patterns easier to see and models easier to build. Results from PCA showed regional variations, with Cameroon having the largest harvested area (139,976 ha), though it ranked 19th in yield (13.4 t ha-1). The Syrian Arab Republic has the highest and most stable yields over the study period, whereas Uzbekistan maintained consistently lower productivity. Tanzania, despite its relatively large harvested area and high output, showed lower yields and greater inter-annual variability, indicating less stable production dynamics than in the Syrian Arab Republic. GLM shows area expansion fails to raise yields in the smallest producers. The study concluded that tomato harvested area, production, and yield are only weakly aligned across 37 LIFDCs. Intensification—rather than land expansion—offers the primary scalability pathway, requiring typology-specific interventions targeting climate-smart pest management and input access to stabilise yields and enhance food security.