Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract October–November Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity has significant impacts for both the Caribbean islands and Central America (e.g., Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020). October–November Caribbean TCs can also track northward and make continental United States landfall, resulting in substantial damage and fatalities (e.g., Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Delta and Zeta in 2020). We find significant increasing trends in October–November Caribbean hurricanes, rapidly intensifying hurricanes (winds increasing by ≥15 m s −1 within 24 hr), and landfalling hurricanes during the global satellite era (1979–present). Since 1979, we also observe significant warming trends in the western Atlantic Warm Pool and anomalous relative cooling in the eastern Pacific during October–November. These trends yield a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for Caribbean TCs, including reductions in Caribbean vertical wind shear, increases in Caribbean potential intensity, and a more TC‐conducive African easterly jet.