Estimating a weighted output gap for Switzerland: methodology and application

Abstract This paper introduces a weighted output gap measure for Switzerland that combines univariate filters, multivariate filters, and production function approaches. Published quarterly by SECO since 2019:Q4, the series provides a historically consistent and robust indicator of cyclical conditions. Using an inflation forecasting framework, the weighted gap achieves forecasting performance comparable to leading individual methods; although it does not outperform them uniformly, it provides a balanced and reliable signal that mitigates method-specific weaknesses. These properties make it a useful benchmark for business cycle analysis and policy applications.