Employment patterns before and after childbirth in Italy: a counterfactual study using administrative data

This paper investigates the labour market dynamics of parents in Italy, focusing on the impact of motherhood on employment conditions before and after childbirth. Using linked administrative data from the Basic Registry of Individuals (RBI) and the Annual register on earnings, working hours and labour cost for persons and enterprises (RACLI), we analyse a population of parents with children born in 2019 who were employed in the private, non-agricultural sector. Adopting a longitudinal and counterfactual approach, we track employment trajectories one year before and three years after childbirth, comparing parents with non-parents to isolate the effect of motherhood on labour market participation. Preliminary results reveal a process of "selection into parenthood," whereby women who become mothers tend to already have a more stable and advantageously compensated work profile before the child's birth. The study also examines wage differentials and access to support measures such as parental leave. In summary, the research offers a detailed perspective on how job stability influences reproductive decisions and how labor market inequalities impact women's careers during a critical life transition in contemporary Italy.