The problem of identification, retrospective dynamics, and the hypothesis of the cyclical nature of currency crises

Subject. Currency crisis as an attribute of the permanent transformation of the global monetary system. Objectives. To determine the essential principles of the currency crisis as a financial and economic phenomenon and, based on a long-term retrospective analysis of the dynamics of currency crises, identify trends and factors in the development of the currency crisis in the context of the transformation of the global monetary system. Methods. General scientific methods of cognition are used: formalization, abstraction, analysis and synthesis, logic, as well as statistical and graphical methods. Results. The main approaches to the identification of currency crises are presented: the nominal approach, the approach of international reserves and the approach of speculative pressure. Through the definition of the key attributes of the currency crisis, its essence as a financial and economic phenomenon is revealed, obvious and latent signs of currency crises are highlighted. The article contains the results of an analysis of the retrospective dynamics of the exchange rate in 70 countries from 1800 to 2024, which made it possible to identify currency crises, the number and frequency of their occurrence in country and time terms. To predict currency crises, a hypothesis has been put forward for the existence of global currency cycles, which are assumed to be derived from commodity, financial and technological supercycles. Indicators of early warning of cyclical currency crises are proposed. Conclusions. A currency crisis can be defined as a situation of sudden, significant, and prolonged decline in the value of a national currency relative to foreign currencies. Suddenness, materiality and duration are the main attributes (principles) of the currency crisis as a financial and economic phenomenon that determine its essence. Based on economic logic, it is possible to hypothesize that the change in the exchange rate is cyclical. Currency supercycles are derived from commodity, financial, or technological supercycles.