Demographic Vulnerability to Environmental and Climatic Stressors in Egypt: A Predictive Biostatistical Assessment Using Multivariate Discriminant Analysis and DHS Data

This study investigates the demographic determinants of vulnerability to environmental and climatic stressors in Egypt using nationally representative data from the Egypt Demographic and Health Survey (DHS 2015). Through a multivariate discriminant analysis framework, the research identifies the key socioeconomic, health, and environmental factors that differentiate vulnerable from resilient population groups. The results reveal that vulnerability is multidimensional, reflecting the intersection of low education, limited household wealth, poor environmental conditions, and elevated child morbidity. Education and wealth emerge as the most powerful protective factors, whereas indoor pollution and unsafe water sources significantly increase exposure risk. The discriminant model achieved an overall classification accuracy of 81%, demonstrating its strong predictive capacity in distinguishing population vulnerability profiles. Spatially, the highest vulnerability levels are concentrated in rural Upper Egypt and the Nile Delta, highlighting persistent regional disparities in adaptive capacity. The findings underscore that demographic vulnerability in Egypt is primarily shaped by socioeconomic inequality and environmental deprivation rather than climate exposure alone. By integrating biostatistical modelling with demographic analysis, the study contributes an empirical foundation for understanding how population characteristics influence resilience to environmental stress, offering a scalable framework for future vulnerability monitoring and demographic foresight research. Keywords: Multivariate Discriminant Analysis; Population Health Inequality; Environmental Exposure; Socioeconomic Determinants; Egypt DHS Data; Predictive Biostatistics.