Climate-Driven Habitat Dynamics and Population Ecology of Rhododendron arboreum Sm. in Himachal Pradesh: Implications for Landscape Restoration and Socio-Economic Development

Rhododendron arboreum Sm., an ecologically and culturally important Himalayan tree species and a key species in Himalayan forests, is increasingly threatened by forest degradation, climate change, and habitat fragmentation. However, previous studies have mainly focused on predicting climatic suitability, with limited integration of field-based population ecology and future climate projections, particularly in the western Himalayas. Therefore, the current investigation integrates population ecology and species distribution modeling (MaxEnt model) under CMIP6 climate scenarios (2070 and 2090) to identify climatically suitable and ecologically viable habitats for long-term species persistence across Himachal Pradesh, using 95 occurrence points and seven environmental predictors. Field data confirmed R. arboreum as a dominant species, strongly associated with Quercus leucotrichophora and Cedrus deodara. Habitat suitability was primarily driven by temperature seasonality (58.6%) and precipitation seasonality (14.8%), with 4508 km2 currently suitable. Future projections forecast a distinct upshift but with high uncertainty regarding total area; projections ranged from potential habitat expansion under optimistic models (BCC-CSM2-MR) to significant contraction under pessimistic models (IPSL-CM6A-LR). Overall, findings prioritize climatically stable refugia (Kalatop-Khajjiar, Chail, and Churdhar wildlife sanctuary) not only for ecological monitoring but also as critical areas for developing socio-ecological management strategies to support community-based conservation and livelihood adaptation.