Predicting Technological Trends and Effects Enabling Large-Scale Supply Drones

Drones have long been explored by commercial and military users for supply. While several systems offering small payloads in drone delivery have seen operational use, large-scale supply drones have yet to be adopted. A range of setbacks cause this, including technological and operational challenges that hinder their adoption. Here, we evaluate these challenges from a conceptual modelling perspective and forecast their applicability once these barriers are overcome. This study uses technology trend modelling and bibliometric activity mapping methodologies to predict the applicability of specific technologies that are currently identified as operational challenges. Specifically for supply drones, we model trends in technological improvements of battery technology and aircraft control, and project its focus on landing zone autonomy and powertrain. The prediction also focuses on the current state of hybrid power and higher levels of automation required for landing zone operations. These models are validated through several published case studies of small delivery drones and then applied to assess the feasibility and constraints of larger supply drones. A case study involving the conceptual design of a supply drone large enough to move a shipping container is presented to illustrate the critical technologies required to transition large supply drones from concept to operational reality. Key technologies required for large-scale supply drones have yet to build up a critical mass of research activity, particularly on landing zone autonomy and powertrain. Moreover, additional constraints beyond technological and operational challenges could include limitations in autonomy, certification hurdles, regulatory complexity, and the need for greater social trust and acceptance.