Rethinking Bio-Industrial Practices: A Theory of Change Toward Post-Growth Symbiosis

Abstract This paper introduces a novel Theory of Change (ToC) framework designed to facilitate Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) implementation in bio-sector supply chains following the ten key LCSA principles established by Valdivia et al. (2021). Drawing on the Calimero project (Horizon Program grant agreement number 101060546), we present an integrative approach that identifies strategic pathways functioning as levers for industrial symbiosis across bio-based sectors, including construction, woodworking, textiles, pulp and paper, and bio-chemicals. Our framework bridges multiple theoretical domains including post-growth theory, industrial ecology, life cycle assessment methodology, and supply chain redesign. The paper presents four interconnected pathways - Regenerative Optimization, Integration and Transparency, Collaboration and Adaptive Governance, and Balancing Bio-Based Demand - that collectively address sustainability gaps in industrial practices while ensuring completeness across all three sustainability pillars (environmental, economic, and social). We provide a comprehensive treatment of the areas of protection, ensure methodological alignment with the LCSA principles and explicitly communicate trade-offs between the pillars. The framework provides a practical approach for transitioning bio-sector operations toward post-growth practices, where socio-ecological wellbeing is prioritized over extractive economic practices. By combining Theory of Change with the established LCSA principles, the research provides a structured narrative that supports transformational initiatives in bio-based sectors by clarifying the pathways and interventions needed for change. The findings contribute to the emerging discourse on redesigning supply chains to preserve environmental resources and societal wellbeing while deprioritizing extractive performance measures. Keywords: Theory of Change, Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment, Post-growth, Bio-based sectors, Industrial symbiosis, Supply chain redesign, LCSA principles