Assessing the aftermath of tripling the tigers’ population in Nepal: socio-economic and eco-environmental sustainability perspectives

Abstract Tiger conservation is a global priority, and Nepal’s program has achieved notable success. However, rapid population growth has intensified human–wildlife conflicts. This study assessed the socio-economic costs of rising tiger populations, evaluated ecological and environmental risks, and examined stakeholder perspectives to inform sustainable human–nature coexistence using a sustainability framework and the theory of change. Wild tiger numbers nearly tripled from 2009 to 2023, reaching 355 (95% CI: 318–392), coinciding with an 11-fold increase in human–wildlife incidents. Over 15 years, conflicts caused an average of 18 (95% CI: 12–24) human casualties, 152 ± 34 injuries, and 47 ± 10 cattle losses annually. Tiger abundance was strongly correlated with human injuries ( r = 0.71–0.74), casualties ( r = 0.81), and livestock losses ( r = 0.75). Relief expenditures averaged US$1.1–1.18 million per year, highlighting substantial economic burdens. Mann–Kendall analyses revealed significant upward trends in tiger numbers, human injuries, casualties, livestock loss, and relief distribution ( p < 0.05). Ecological challenges include at least 20 tigers in captivity (2024) and 558 wildlife deaths in 2022/23, including retaliatory killings. Stakeholder priorities varied: safety and compensation for local communities, law enforcement for officials, coordination for NGOs, policy reform for political leaders, and awareness for the media. Current interventions—rescue, caging, and relief distribution—impose pressures on social, economic, ecological, and environmental systems without fully mitigating risks. Applying the theory of change, findings underscore the need for integrated, community-centered, long-term strategies combining conflict prevention, livelihood protection, habitat and prey management, and policy reform. Such approaches can reconcile ecological sustainability with socio-economic welfare, ensuring effective tiger conservation while minimizing adverse human and environmental impacts. Graphical abstract