Uranium at the nexus of energy security and sustainable development in a renuclearised world: market dynamics, environmental-social risks and geopolitical imperatives

Renewed political and commercial momentum for civil nuclear power, driven by decarbonisation imperatives and energy security concerns, is reshaping uranium demand and supply dynamics. This review examines how three interdependent domains - market tightening and supply constraints, environmental-social risks, and geopolitical governance - jointly determine the feasibility of sustainable uranium mobilisation. The objective is to evaluate how these domains interact to shape the sustainability, resilience, and governance of future uranium supply in support of large-scale nuclear deployment. Recent studies indicate that identified recoverable resources are substantial, but converting U-deposits into reliable, licensable supplies is constrained by geological heterogeneity, long lead times, regulatory complexity, and midstream conversion/enrichment bottlenecks. The present market is characterised by tightening physical availability, rising spot and term prices, and an increasing reliance on long-term utility contracts. Production remains geographically concentrated, particularly in Kazakhstan, Canada, Namibia, Australia and Uzbekistan, increasing exposure to operational, regulatory, and political disruptions and strengthening the strategic imperative for diversification. Environmental and social risks associated with uranium production, including radiation protection, groundwater integrity, tailings stewardship and land disturbance, require multi-decadal engineering controls and institutional oversight. Although many hazards are technically manageable under modern standards, long-term tailings stewardship, ISR restoration, and community consent remain fragile and decisive for social licence. Weak regulatory capacity and adverse legacies from other extractive activities further elevate project risk. Geopolitically, uranium sits at the intersection of commercial markets and strategic policy, creating persistent tension between economic efficiency and sovereign security priorities. Robust IAEA safeguards, transparent multilateral governance, regional capacity building, and calibrated stockpile and procurement strategies are required to preserve non-proliferation while maintaining supply security. Therefore, sustainable uranium supply security cannot be achieved through market mechanisms alone. It emerges from coordinated governance across exploration, midstream capacity, regulation and institutional trust.