Between Risk and Hope: Demographic Change and (Return)Migration in Latvia Amid Russia's War in Ukraine

Project "Between Risk and Hope: Demographic Change and (Return)Migration in Latvia Amid Russia’s War in Ukraine (Nr. VPP-IZM-Letonika-2025/1-0002)".The project explores demography, migration, and return migration within the context of current geopolitical, socio-economic, and regional changes in Latvia. It considers Russia’s war in Ukraine as a structural shock that alters how people in Latvia and its diaspora make decisions about family formation, emigration, return, and integration. Drawing on theories of risk society, ontological security, and hope/future imaginaries, it examines how perceived insecurity and future expectations influence demographic behaviour. The project consists of five substantive work packages: 1) civic “X-Day” imaginaries and their demographic implications; 2) fertility and family strategies amidst insecurity; 3) return migration potential in the Latvian UK diaspora; 4) media discourse on migration; 5) integration experiences of post-2022 Ukrainian refugees, along with recent Belarusian and Russian migrants. Using mixed methods, including a nationally representative survey, survey and conjoint experiments, participant observation, and in-depth interviews, the project will produce reusable datasets, academic publications, policy briefs, regional outreach events, and a book. By working with Latvia’s ministries responsible for demography, welfare, defence, diaspora, and integration, it will provide evidence-based recommendations to improve population resilience, return migration strategies, and demographic policy planning amid long-term geopolitical pressures.