Electrification, Human Capital, and Pandemic Mortality: Evidence from a Global Threshold Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed large cross-country differences in mortality that cannot be explained by short-run policy responses alone. This study investigates how pre-pandemic electrification and human capital jointly shaped pandemic outcomes, emphasizing their potential non-linear complementarity. Using cross-country data and pre-pandemic averages of electricity access and schooling, we examine how long-run development conditions influenced COVID-19 mortality during 2020–2021. We estimate fixed-effects models and a threshold regression framework that allows the interaction between electrification and human capital to vary across infrastructure regimes. The results identify a sharp electrification threshold at approximately 96 percent. Below this threshold, higher levels of schooling are not associated with lower pandemic mortality and may even coincide with increased vulnerability, consistent with binding infrastructure constraints that prevent human capital from being effectively deployed during a health crisis. Above the threshold, the interaction between electrification and schooling becomes statistically insignificant, indicating that in highly electrified economies, the benefits of human capital are already embedded within integrated systems of healthcare delivery, communication, and public health governance. These findings reveal a non-linear complementarity between infrastructure and human capital. Education alone does not enhance pandemic resilience when basic infrastructure remains incomplete, while in near-universally electrified societies its protective role is largely internalized. The results highlight the importance of long-run infrastructure completion as a structural prerequisite for translating human capital into effective pandemic preparedness and resilience.