Modelling the evolution of the European high-speed rail infrastructure network

High-speed rail (HSR) is often considered a promising and sustainable alternative for long-distance travel in the European context, aligned with Europe’s ambitious mobility and climate goals for 2050. However, a cohesive European HSR network is yet to be realised. Critically, the planning of a European HSR network requires considering how the network is to gradually evolve from its current fragmented state. We introduce an Evolutionary Network Growth model with Infrastructure and Network Effects considerations for European Rail (ENGINEER). This novel iterative network growth model selects the HSR infrastructure with the highest economic potential, continuously updating network configurations and demand patterns, subject to budget feasibility constraints. ENGINEER integrates cost estimates based on a microscopic representation and benefits estimated based on a macroscopic travel demand representation and is applied across 28 European countries. Our findings highlight the importance of path dependency and the benefits of an integrated decision-making in infrastructure planning. Model results demonstrate that ENGINEER can effectively identify promising HSR investments, yielding a cohesive and well-integrated European HSR network which leads to an increase in rail mode share per trip from 13% in 2023 to 27% by 2065.