Evaluating and Regulating the Water Quality Impacts of Large-Scale Hydropower Development: A Case Study of the Leading Reservoir in the Middle Reaches of the Jinsha River

Large-scale hydropower development provides substantial socio-economic and energy benefits but simultaneously introduces complex ecological and environmental challenges that require comprehensive scientific assessment. This study systematically evaluates the effects of the leading reservoir (Longpan hydropower station, referring to the uppermost and principal flow-regulating dam in the cascade) in the middle reaches of the Jinsha River’s operation on the water environment of the mainstream Yangtze River, China, with the aim of clarifying its water quality responses and supporting evidence-based basin management. Based on an analysis of the current water quality conditions of the Yangtze River and a comparative review of the operational experience of the Three Gorges Reservoir, this research explores the mechanisms through which large reservoirs alter hydrological and ecological processes. These mechanisms include reduced flow velocity, prolonged water residence time, weakened pollutant dispersion, and increased risk of algal blooms in tributaries. To quantitatively assess these impacts, an improved river dilution–mixing model was developed and applied to simulate the water quality response during the dry season (February–April) under different discharge scenarios. Key downstream monitoring sections were examined. The modeling results indicate that the operation of the Leading reservoir can moderately reduce dry-season concentrations of key pollutants (e.g., total phosphorus, permanganate index) at downstream sections by approximately 2–5% on average, with spatially heterogeneous effects. Although the overall improvement magnitude remains limited, the combined effects of sediment deposition and in situ degradation may yield more pronounced real-world benefits. The findings underscore the importance of optimizing the regulatory function of the Longpan Reservoir through coordinated operation within the cascade reservoir system. It is recommended to integrate water resource allocation, water quality management, and aquatic ecosystem protection, alongside enhanced pollution control and ecological restoration in key zones. The methodology and findings provide a referenced framework for assessing the water-environmental implications of large-scale reservoir regulation in other major river systems.