Quantile Evidence on Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in a Fragile State: The Case of Afghanistan

In recent decades, the role of institutions has become a central topic of discussion among scholars and policy makers. This study used time-series data from Afghanistan between 1996 and 2024 to gain new insights into the impact of political instability (POI), corruption (COR) and government effectiveness (GEF) on economic growth. The results of Quantile-on-Quantile Regression and Wavelet Quantile regression reveal that POI, COR, and GEF have adverse and statistically significant effects on GDP growth across all quantiles and over long-term time periods. Event analysis through the interrupted time series technique shows that the key political events, including the Civil War (CW), the First Round of the Taliban Regime (FRTR), U.S.-NATO interventions (USN), the Second Round of Taliban Regime (SRTR), and Regime Changes (RCH), have had a negative impact on Afghanistan’s GDP growth. The immediate impact of the Soviet Union’s war is estimated to be positive. At the same time, Afghanistan’s GDP experienced negative growth during SUW, CW, FRTR, and RCH, while during USN and SRTR, the GDP growth was positive. Based on these findings, the paper discusses possible policy implications.