Paleogenomic Evidence for Genetic Heterogeneity and Prior Admixture in Gothic-Associated Communities of Late Antique Bulgaria

Abstract We report genome-wide ancient DNA from 38 individuals associated with Gothic-period mortuary contexts at two Bulgarian sites: the Aquae Calidae necropolis (∼320 - 375 CE; n=23) and the Aul of Khan Omurtag (AKO; ∼350 - 489 CE; n=15). Although linked by closely similar Gothic-associated material culture and east - west Arian burial practices, the two assemblages are genetically distinct. Aquae Calidae individuals are modeled with predominantly Anatolian-related ancestry (50 - 85% in qpAdm), whereas AKO individuals are modeled with predominantly Wielbark/Chernyakhov-related northern ancestry (60 - 78%). Across the full assemblage, no single ancestry model fits all individuals, whose profiles range from nearly unadmixed Chernyakhov-like to predominantly Anatolian-related. DATES analysis places admixture between northern European and southern Balkan/Anatolian-related ancestry components approximately 11 - 13 generations before burial (point estimate ∼50 CE; 95% CI, 85 BCE - 183 CE; Z=5.26), raising the possibility that this mixture predated the earliest documented Gothic - Roman contacts (∼170 CE). The convergence of dates across alternative southern proxies, together with reduced fit when Balkan and Anatolian sources are pooled into a single southern reference, favors admixture involving a pre-blended Balkan - Anatolian substrate over two temporally distinct southern admixture pulses. This signal was not recovered in the non-Gothic Roman-period Balkan populations tested as controls and is consistent with admixture in a trans-Danubian frontier setting, potentially including Roman Dacia after 106 CE. These findings support models in which Gothic affiliation in the Balkans operated as a cultural-political framework encompassing populations of diverse biological ancestry.