Crabs of the Barents Sea under Climate Change

Potential geographical range shifts were assessed for six crab species (Chionoecetes opilio, Lithodes maja, Paralithodes camtschaticus, Hyas araneus, Hyas coarctatus, and Cancer pagurus) in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters by the middle and end of the 21st century under various climate scenarios. Ensemble modeling (SDM) with 11 algorithms (Random Forest, MaxEnt, GAM, etc.), ecosystem survey data (2004–2023), and CMIP 6 climate projections have been applied. A significant reduction in the ranges of cold-water species, such as C. opilio, is probable due to warming of the near-bottom water layer and degradation of ice biotopes. In contrast, warm-water L. maja and P. camtschaticus, as well as the possibly invasive C. pagurus, may expand their ranges through atlantification of the Arctic. The temperature gradients, salinity, and nutrient availability will be key factors in this restructuring.