Diagnostics of interregional asymmetries in the development of transport and logistics business

The article presents a comprehensive study of the transformation of Ukraine’s transport and logistics business under the influence of full-scale military aggression. The author identifies key determinants of the emergence and deepening of interregional asymmetries in the sector, caused by the destruction of critical infrastructure, changes in the vectors of foreign economic relations, and relocation processes. A methodological approach to assessing territorial gaps based on a system of infrastructural, economic, and social indicators is substantiated. The dynamics of logistics activity across the regions for the period 2019–2023 are analyzed, which reveal a significant shift in the sector’s business activity towards the western and northern regions of Ukraine. Attention is paid to the analysis of transport network density and the concentration of logistics enterprises in safer regions. Based on the results, strategic guidelines are defined to minimize regional imbalances and build a resilient logistics system in the context of Ukraine’s post-war recovery and European integration. The proposed approach can be adapted to monitor other economic sectors under conditions of extreme uncertainty. The results of the conducted research provide grounds to state that the transformation of Ukraine’s economic space under the influence of military aggression has led to the emergence of profound interregional and structural gaps in the functioning of the transport and logistics business. The analysis of theoretical and methodological approaches, along with empirical data, has allowed for the identification of a clear shift in logistics activity vectors toward the western and northern regions. This shift is driven by both relocation processes and the need to form new foreign economic supply chains. At the same time, the destruction of critical infrastructure and the blockade of traditional maritime routes have significantly reduced the sector’s efficiency in the eastern and southern regions, as evidenced by the degradation of logistics networks and a substantial increase in operating costs. The applied assessment system, based on relative infrastructural, economic, and social indicators, has ensured a high level of objectivity in identifying territorial asymmetries. Keywords: transport and logistics business, interregional asymmetries, martial law, logistics infrastructure, spatial transformation, regional development, business relocation, post-war recovery, resilience of economic systems, territorial disproportions.