Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Expansion and Ecological Vulnerability in Mysore, India

Abstract Urban expansion is a major driver of environmental transformation in rapidly growing cities. This study evaluates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban growth and associated ecological vulnerability in Mysore, India, between 2000 and 2024 using remote sensing and geospatial analysis. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery and Bhuvan datasets were used to generate land use/land cover maps through supervised classification, while vegetation condition was assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Results reveal that built-up area increased from 10% in 2000 to 35% in 2024, accompanied by a decline in vegetation cover from 70% to 45%. NDVI values decreased from 0.65 to 0.45, indicating progressive vegetation degradation. Correlation analysis demonstrated a strong inverse relationship between urban expansion and ecological indicators. Regression-based projections suggest that built-up land may exceed 50% by 2040, with green space declining below recommended thresholds. The findings highlight intensifying thermal stress, degradation of urban ecosystems, and increasing ecological vulnerability. The study emphasizes the need for climate-sensitive urban planning, green infrastructure development, and geospatial monitoring to support sustainable urban growth in emerging Indian cities. Keywords: Urban expansion; Ecological vulnerability; Remote sensing; GIS; NDVI; Land use/land cover; Urban heat island; Sustainable urban planning; Mysore, India