Annual survival in a dynamic species: pronghorn survival patterns across their northern range

Quantifying variation in demographic patterns, such as survival and recruitment, is critical for understanding population dynamics and informing evidence‐based and adaptive wildlife management. In this study, we leverage an extensive dataset from over 1000 GPS collared pronghorn Antilocapra americana to provide the first large‐scale evaluation of survival patterns for an iconic North American ungulate. This research spans multiple years and regions, as well as age and sex classes, and includes more than 3000 animal‐years of monitoring, representing the most spatially and temporally extensive survival dataset for the species to date. Using a hierarchical Bayesian analytical framework, we estimate the process distribution of survival, thereby capturing true biological variation in adult females, adult males, and juveniles. Our results reveal that, across pronghorn populations, mean pronghorn survival is variable yet statistically consistent across regions and through time. In contrast to other sympatric ungulates across North America (e.g. deer and elk), however, adult female pronghorn show lower and more temporally variable survival – highlighting a likely factor contributing to significant fluctuations often observed in pronghorn populations. Therefore, through this extensive survival analysis, we identify demographic mechanisms (e.g. temporally varying adult female survival rates) that contribute to dynamic population trends within the species. Our findings advance understanding of pronghorn demography and expose both species‐specific vulnerability and species‐specific resilience in response to stochastic events. More broadly, this work underscores the value of large‐scale demographic monitoring for identifying sources of variation in population trends, critical for informing adaptive management in the context of global environmental change.