Analysis of Water Resources Support Capacity through an Integrated Modeling and Indicator-Based Framework: A Case Study of the Bakhtiari Watershed

In recent years, growing environmental degradation worldwide has intensified the need to assess the impacts of human activities and to harmonize socio-economic development with sustainable ecosystems. Among the various approaches to evaluating human–environment interactions, the concept of water resources carrying capacity (adapted from the broader carrying capacity framework) has emerged as a valuable tool in water resource management. This study introduces an integrated framework that combines simulation modeling, indicator-based assessment, and a pressure–support factor to evaluate water resources carrying capacity. The proposed method addresses two major shortcomings in existing studies: the insufficient consideration of environmental health status and the limited comparability among indicators. The framework was applied to the Bakhtiari watershed, Iran, for the period 2003–2023, divided into three intervals: 2003–2009, 2009–2017, and 2017–2023. Assessments were conducted both annually and for each interval. Results show that water resource loading was within the carrying capacity only during the first period, while excessive loading occurred in the second and third periods. Both carrying capacity and environmental health declined markedly, reaching their lowest levels in the final period. Pressure–support analysis revealed increasing pressures on water resources alongside a continuous reduction in support capacity, largely driven by rapid economic development policies that overlooked sustainability. The strong alignment between results and observed regional conditions highlights the framework’s applicability for policy evaluation, scenario analysis, and forecasting. This approach provides a robust basis for assessing the socio-economic and environmental impacts of water resource management strategies in similar contexts.