Geospatial Assessment of Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics and Future Predictions Using Markov Chain Cellular-Automata Simulations in Rajouri District of Jammu and Kashmir, India

Land use/land cover (LULC) change significantly influences a range of environmental and socio-economic issues, including climate change, deforestation, biodiversity loss, soil degradation, ecosystem services, and food security, at local, regional, and global levels. In the northwestern Himalayan region, particularly in Rajouri district of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), LULC change has profound environmental and socio-economic implications. Understanding the temporal and spatial dimensions of LULC change is crucial for assessing the impact of human activities on the region’s environment. The present study aimed to analyze LULC change in Rajouri district of J&K, India over a 30-year period from 1990 to 2020 and to project future LULC dynamics for the next 30 years up to 2050. Landsat imagery with a supervised classification technique was used for classification and generation of LULC maps. Moreover, CA Markov model was used to predict the future LULC status of the area. The model validation exhibited strong performance, with Kappa statistics exceeding 0.90, indicating a high level of reliability in the projections. The results indicate considerable changes in different land use classes from 1990 to 2020. Over the 30-year period, dense forest showed the maximum reduction of about −20.69 Km2, followed by open forest (−15.87 Km2) and grassland (−13.75 Km2). Wasteland showed the maximum increase of about +28.24 Km2, followed by built-up (+17.90 Km2) and cropland (+12.50 Km2). The cumulative impact of deforestation from 1990 to 2020 amounts to approximately 43.17 Km2, while afforestation efforts only managed to reclaim 6.61 Km2 of land. The future prediction using the CA Markov model suggests further changes in LULC patterns, with built-up, cropland, and wasteland projected to increase exponentially by 2050, accompanied by sharp declines in forests. Therefore, policymakers should prioritize sustainable land management and forest conservation strategies to mitigate the potential negative impacts of LULC changes on the environment, ensuring balanced and sustainable development.