A Reduced-Order Burgers-Type Vortex Model with Shear-Driven Gyroscopic Precession

Slow lateral wandering and trochoidal-like motion are commonly observed in intense atmospheric vortices, yet most reduced-order vortex models assume a fixed axis or represent centre motion as purely advective. In this work, we propose a minimal reduced-order framework in which slow gyroscopic precession is introduced as an explicit degree of freedom superimposed on a rapidly rotating vortex core. The vortex is represented by a Burgers–Rott-type velocity field with time-dependent stretching rate and circulation, while the vortex centre undergoes a slow precessional motion governed by a time-dependent rate Ωp(t). The evolution of the vortex parameters is coupled to environmental variability through simple relaxation laws driven by standard large-scale diagnostics, including convective available potential energy, vertical shear, and background vorticity. A tracker-only analysis of tropical cyclone best-track data is used to constrain the appropriate dynamical regime at the track scale, indicating that observed centre wandering typically occurs in a slow-precession limit P = Ωp/ωc≪1. Numerical demonstrations in cyclone-like configurations show that, despite the smallness of the precession number, cumulative lateral displacement and enhanced Lagrangian dispersion can develop over the vortex lifetime. The proposed framework is intended as a proof-of-concept reduced-order model that isolates the role of weak, environmentally forced precession in modulating vortex wandering and transport, and complements more detailed numerical and observational studies.