Mapping Priority Remediation Areas for Soil Erosion in Karst Regions Under Shared Socio‐Economic Pathways

ABSTRACT Soil erosion strips away fertile topsoil, posing challenges to global ecology and food security, particularly in the karst regions of southern China. However, research on soil erosion risk in karst areas under the dual influences of climate and land use changes remains scarce. Specifically, the question of how soil erosion risk in karst regions will change probabilistically in the future has not been effectively addressed. This study proposes a novel assessment framework from a risk probability perspective. Within this innovative framework, we employ Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to link future Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), climatic factors, and soil erosion management. By integrating various SSP‐RCP scenario data through Geographic Information Systems, we assess the probabilistic risk of soil erosion induced by future climate and socio‐economic changes. BBN sensitivity analysis reveals that LULC, slope, and precipitation are key factors influencing soil erosion. Compared to 2020, the probability of various soil erosion levels under four future scenarios generally shows a declining trend, with the greatest decrease observed under the SSP126 scenario. High‐risk areas for future soil erosion are primarily concentrated in the northern and western parts of the study area. Spatial planning for soil erosion control should focus on adjusting the key states of key variables for different soil erosion risk levels in these regions to reduce the likelihood of soil erosion risk. This study provides a promising visual decision‐making tool for developing climate‐adaptive soil erosion risk management plans and broadens new perspectives for future soil and water conservation planning from a risk probability standpoint.