Viral Suppression Among People Living with HIV in Tajikistan: A Nationwide Analysis

Viral suppression is a cornerstone of HIV management, essential for improving health outcomes and preventing transmission. However, varying definitions of suppression, ranging from ≤1000 copies/mL (controlled) to ≤200 (clinically suppressed) and ≤50 (untransmittable), complicate the assessment of progress toward global UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals. Our study evaluated progress in achieving viral suppression among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Tajikistan between 2010 and 2024 using cross-sectional data from the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of Population registry. Viral load was measured using real-time PCR, and suppression was assessed across three thresholds (≤1000, ≤200, ≤50 copies/mL). We examined associations between viral suppression and demographic factors using Chi-square tests and logistic regression models. Across all thresholds, suppression rates remained below the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target goals. At the ≤50 copies/mL threshold, 77% of males and 83% of females achieved suppression, with males demonstrating lower odds of achieving viral suppression. Regional disparities were evident, with Khatlon and Sughd showing the lowest viral suppression rate (72.2% and 76.8%, respectively) and lower odds of achieving viral suppression compared to Dushanbe. Urban-rural differences were also observed (78.3% vs. 81.1%), though odds ratios using logistic regression models were not significant. Findings highlight persistent demographic and regional disparities, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to achieve equitable viral suppression in Tajikistan. Our findings also highlight associations and do not imply causal inference. In addition, authors acknowledge that interpretation of viral suppression outcomes is limited by the absence of data on treatment regimens, duration, adherence, CD4 counts, and behavioral factors.