Coping with change: interactive effects of anthropogenic change influence the breeding success and survival of a desert-dwelling cooperative breeder

Habitat modification and climate change are major threats to biodiversity. Using 38 years of data (1985–2023), we examined their combined influence on a desert-dwelling cooperative breeder’s reproductive success and projected the likely magnitude of future effects of these threats under two climate scenarios for the end of the century (2100). In natural habitats, rainfall increased reproductive success, while extreme temperatures reduced survival. Human-modified habitats buffered against climate extremes, resulting in higher reproductive success even in dry and hot conditions. Future projections indicate likely declines in lifetime reproductive success in natural habitats, but the same projected declines are not observed in modified habitats, which may offer temporary refugia against climate effects. Larger social groups had higher reproductive success and survival rates in both habitat types, highlighting the important role of helpers in cooperatively breeding species. Our findings highlight (i) the need to assess multiple anthropogenic factors to fully understand their impact on species' fitness and (ii) the importance of long-term datasets in addressing the complex relationship between the multiple drivers of anthropogenic change.