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Fluid flow has a major effect on the aggregation and fragmentation of bacterial colonies. Yet, a generic framework to understand and predict how hydrodynamics affects colony size remains elusive. This study investigates how fluid flow affects the formation and maintenance of large colonial structures in cyanobacteria, using an experimental technique that precisely controls hydrodynamic conditions. We performed experiments on laboratory cultures and lake samples of the cyanobacterium Microcystis, while their colony size distribution was measured simultaneously by direct microscopic imaging. We demonstrate that EPS-embedded cells formed by cell division exhibit significant mechanical resistance to shear forces. However, at elevated hydrodynamic stress levels (exceeding those typically generated by surface wind mixing) these colonies experience fragmentation through an erosion process. We also show that single cells can aggregate into small colonies due to fluid flow. However, the structural integrity of these flow-induced colonies is weaker than that of colonies formed by cell division. We provide a mathematical analysis to support the experiments and demonstrate that a population model with two categories of colonies describes the measured size distributions. Our results shed light on the specific conditions wherein flow-induced fragmentation and aggregation of cyanobacteria are decisive and indicate that colony formation under natural conditions is mainly driven by cell division, although flow-induced aggregation could play a role in dense bloom events. These findings can be used to improve prediction models and mitigation strategies for toxic cyanobacterial blooms and also offer potential applications in other areas such as algal biotechnology or medical settings where the dynamics of biological aggregates play a significant role.