Evaluation of energy demands in future scenarios for a residential district via co-simulation of heat, electricity, and mobility: the case of the district “Am Ölper Berge”

This study examines the thermal, electrical, and mobility energy demand and supply of the residential district “Am Ölper Berge" in Lower Saxony, and evaluates potential developments of the district energy supply system and the trade-offs associated with its modernization. A reference scenario for the year 2020 serves as the baseline for evaluating future development points (2030, 2040, 2050), including increasing electrification of thermal energy supply, improvements in building energy efficiency, and the integration of renewable energy sources for local generation. The scenarios include step-by-step measures such as facade insulation, implementation of photovoltaic systems, district heating supply, implementation of heat pumps, and the integration of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. This is achieved using several control models integrated into the co-simulation platform mosaik. In the 2050 scenario, heat supply is provided via heat pumps and a low-temperature district heating network, supplemented by neighborhood energy storage and extensive use of photovoltaic systems. Four extended scenarios examine centralized and decentralized control strategies that monitor grid voltage across the district and optimize electric vehicle charging. The analysis includes charging strategies such as maximum charging power, night-time charging, forecast-based charging, and solar-optimized charging. The results show significant differences in external energy demands and CO$$_2$$ emissions, with solar-optimized charging of electrical vehicles combined with areal use of power flexibilities for grid control offering the greatest environmental and operational benefits. The study provides key insights into the interactions between building energy demands, decentralized generation, and grid operation, thereby supporting the planning of energy supply for urban districts in alignment with emission reduction targets.